The Kansas City Chiefs take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on “Monday Night Football.”
Here are the game details:
To start up: 7:15 p.m. Central Monday
Or: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City
TV: ESPN and ESPN2
Radio: KFNZ (96.5 FM in Kansas City, KNSS 98.7 FM in Wichita)
Bet line: Heads at 9 1/2.
Chiefs-Buccaneers match prediction
It’s worth starting with the same warning as last week’s prediction: A 9 1/2 point spread is a lot in the NFL while also being vulnerable to backdoor coverage, just like the Las Vegas Raiders scored a late touchdown last week in the Chiefs win 27-20 on the road.
In other words, the Chiefs need to do more than play well to cover this week’s double-digit spread; they must also maintain this considerable advantage when team incentives may change.
You’ll hear a lot about Tampa Bay trying to work around injuries to star receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, but the reality is that side of the ball still had a lot of positives without those guys. last week’s close loss to Atlanta.
For example, Tampa Bay totaled 300 passing yards and 100 rushing yards for its third straight game. If he does this a fourth time, it will be longest sequence of this type since the Peyton Manning-led Denver Broncos in 2013.
New offensive coordinator Liam Coen appears to have found a way to play to quarterback Baker Mayfield’s strengths, while tight end Cade Otton is asked to handle a bigger load and additional receiver responsibilities with two top weapons of the team.
The running game also combines strong run blocking with a pair of backs that most metrics love. Bucky Irving is good at avoiding tackles, while Rachaad White, child of KC demonstrated his big-play potential as a runner and receiver.
Mayfield, on the other hand, is at his best when he’s fast and up-tempo. He is the The best short passer in the NFL in almost every stat, while his average throw time of 2.60 seconds is the fourth-fastest among 32 qualified QBs.
The Buccaneers’ biggest concern should be on the defensive end. The team has particularly struggled in coverage at the linebacker position, while ranking among the worst in the league at covering opposing tight ends.
There has also been a jumble at the back end of the team’s corner rotation, although Kansas State product Josh Hayes got some high-quality snaps last week after replacing the struggling Tyrek Funderburk.
That’s still not the way a defense wants to evolve heading into a matchup with KC, who likes to target short throws in the middle of the field while also looking to prey on an opponent’s biggest weakness.
The weather will be worth monitoring, as a storm is possible around the match. It’s worth noting, however, that this threat is not expected to produce much wind, meaning these infractions likely won’t be hampered by conditions, as one might expect.
KC’s defense stopped almost every good running game it encountered, and I think it will have success in that area on Monday. Still, the Chiefs haven’t always been good at defending short passes — something the Bucs thrive with — which makes me think Tampa Bay could keep some offense going against KC while continuing a season-long trend has excellence on third downs.
Many of the same talking points can be reversed when discussing KC’s offense. Look for tight end Travis Kelce to be a group target, with the Chiefs’ efficient but not explosive style playing very well against this depleted defense.
A stormy shootout? I think so.
The leaders I didn’t get more than 30 points in almost a calendar year – November 26, 2023 against the Raiders was the last time – but I see them hitting that mark here with the passing game finding its rhythm.
That doesn’t stop me from thinking Mayfield and the Bucs will find their own success by attacking a KC vulnerability underneath.
Give me the Chiefs for the win, but the Buccaneers for the cover.
Chiefs 31, buccaneers 24
Jesse’s choice to cover the spread: Tampa Bay
Prediction of the last match: Chiefs 30, Raiders 13 (Actual: Chiefs 27-20) ❌
2024 record vs spread: 4-2-1
Record compared to the difference of the last three seasons: 29-18-1 (62%)
