We saw last season what Ford Field looks like for a Detroit Lions playoff game. It might have been the best atmosphere in the NFL.
Imagine what it would be like if the Lions had two home wins in a Super Bowl, as the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
A somewhat miraculous win over the Houston Texans last week put the Lions at 8-1 and in good shape for the top seed and a bye. The Lions have been the best team in the NFC, maybe the NFL, and it’s increasingly difficult to determine who could take out Detroit in January.
But here’s a reminder that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat the Lions in a random game back in Week 2, when the Bucs were outscored 463-216. Random losses can happen, even in the playoffs.
The Lions are far from unbeatable and the NFC should have a good playoff field, but only two teams really stand out as dangers to keep Detroit from its first Super Bowl. Here’s a look at the potential playoff dramas for the Lions:
Good but probably not: Vikings, Packers, Commanders, Cardinals, Falcons
We are not accepting applications from teams under .500 at this time. NFC is too deep for that. So while a team like the Chicago Bears or Buccaneers could make a run and become a giant killer in January, we’ll wait to see that happen.
There are arguments to be made for the Vikings and Packers, although the bigger problem is that the Lions have already beaten them both on the road. It’s difficult to pick one or the other to win at Ford Field in a playoff game, although every team is capable of it. Especially if Minnesota can address Sam Darnold’s declining turnovers.
Commanders, cardinals and hawks all fall into the same bucket. They can all score, but it’s hard to imagine their defenses are good enough to slow down the Lions. The Commanders and Cardinals defenses in particular have been much better than expected, but are they stopping Detroit? Probably not. They will depend on their ability to beat the Lions in a high-scoring game and that is a difficult task.
However, two other top NFC teams match up better.
The Eagles are coming
The Philadelphia Eagles were 2-2 heading into their bye week. They were damaged and unimpressive. Apparently everyone has stopped paying attention to them, because they now go unnoticed.
Since the bye, the Eagles are 5-0. Over their last four matches, their point differential is +78 with three victories of 20 points, each away. The schedule has been easy, but the NFL doesn’t hand out wins by 20 points. The Eagles were good.
The Eagles are good enough on defense to limit Detroit. They are sixth in defensive EPA (expected points added) according to TruMedia. Philadelphia has understood the plans of new coordinator Vic Fangio very well in recent weeks. The Eagles defense is seventh in the NFL in EPA allowed per carry and ninth in success rate against the run, which is a good strength to have against a Lions offense that can do everything but default with its elite offensive line and two star backs and punish other defenses.
And Philly has the type of offense that can run it, control the clock and keep the Lions offense off the field. They are fourth in time of possession, largely because they are second in the NFL in rushing yards and first in attempts.
The formula and talent are there for the Eagles to be a big problem for the Lions.
The 49ers still have the advantage
The 49ers would not make the playoffs if the season ended today. They would be eighth in the NFC. The Cardinals would win the NFC West. The 5-4 49ers would not be a wild card.
But it’s time to go this season. And the 49ers are still scary if they ever reach their ceiling.
San Francisco just got Christian McCaffrey back, and even though they won’t be at full strength this season because Brandon Aiyuk finished the season, they still have a fantastic team. Advanced statistics indicate that the 49ers are already good, despite their disappointing record. They are fifth overall DVOAthird on offense and fifth on defense. There are only two teams in the NFL that are in the top five in offensive and defensive DVOA: Detroit and San Francisco. They’re second in the NFL in yards per game and that’s been without a Hall of Fame running back for eight games and Aiyuk hasn’t even made much of an impact in the seven games he’s played.
It’s good to rule out the 49ers. They don’t seem as dominant as the last few seasons. They struggled in many games. But it’s dangerous to forget the 49ers. Analytics indicate they’re not that far from the elite team they’ve been, and this is the level of team that could get hot in December and present problems in January for a team like the Lions.
There is a long way to go this season. Injuries will happen. The Lions could lose a few games and lose control of the No. 1 seed. Other contenders could emerge. But at least the Eagles and 49ers look like they could ruin Detroit’s plans to travel to New Orleans for a Super Bowl this season.
After all, we have to figure out who the Kansas City Chiefs will inevitably face in the Super Bowl, right?
