What’s more fun than questioning NFL coaches? Nothing, that’s what. So let’s do it every week, right here. This week: Staring into the Dragon’s Teeth.
The scenario
Kansas City at Buffalo, the latest episode of the NFL’s biggest rivalry today. Buffalo has the ball, leads 23-21, but is on fourth-and-2 from the Kansas City 26 with just over two minutes left. A field goal gives the Bills a five-point lead. Getting started and succeeding takes more time; going there and failing gives Kansas City the ball with two timeouts.
This is why NFL coaches make a lot of money. What are you doing?
The arguments in favor of kicking
A field goal forces Kansas City to drive the length of the field for a go-ahead touchdown. Plus, if you go for the fourth-down conversion and miss, Kansas City only needs about 40 yards to win the game with a field goal. Kicking is the safe play, putting the onus on your defense to hold off Mahomes with about two minutes left.
The arguments for going there
Everyone within a million miles of Buffalo knows that you don’t give Patrick Mahomes the ball with two minutes left…since that’s a minute and 47 seconds more than he needs to destroy your world. Mahomes, of course, led Kansas City to victory over Buffalo in early 2022 in one of the great playoff games of all time, forcing overtime with a come-from-behind field goal that started with just 13 seconds to play. Do you really want to give him the chance to start over?
Additionally, Bills kicker Tyler Bass is just 31 of 39 from 40-49 yards in his career and 5 of 8 this season, and had already missed an extra point that day. A missed field goal would give Kansas City the ball and they would only have to travel about 30 yards to get into field goal range. The risks of this project were high…the risks of anything involving a basket were even higher.
The result
Sean McDermott made the only realistic choice he could have made, even though there are many overly cautious coaches in the NFL who probably would have settled for half measures and hoped for the best. (One of them is currently employed in Chicago, for now.) The Bills opted to keep their offense on the field, and Josh Allen made McDermott look like a wise man:
Effect on game outcome
Allen’s touchdown effectively salted the game for Buffalo, which is great news for Bills fans, but only adds more playoff pressure. Buffalo now has six straight regular season wins against Kansas City, but three straight playoff losses in the Mahomes/Allen era. Regular season wins are nice; playoff wins are essential.
Success makes coaches look very good in retrospect, but was it the wisest play? Given Mahomes’ past history — even Mahomes clearly below today’s MVP level — McDermott was faced with some agonizing options, but ultimately chose the one that paid off.
Your call: Is giving the ball to Patrick Mahomes a good idea?
