You can watch Thursday Night Football: Steelers vs. Browns at 8:20 p.m. ET/5:20 p.m. PT on Amazon Prime Video.
We’re going to get another dose of divisional action tonight, as the 8-2 Pittsburgh Steelers travel to Ohio to take on the 2-8 Cleveland Browns. Now, the last few division matchups we’ve had on TNF have been pretty good for fantasy football purposes, so we have to hope this one doesn’t turn into your typical AFC North rock fight (or rather specific to the Steelers), where only kickers and punters seem to have a day (looking at you, Chris Boswell).
Let’s move on to the history of the band.
Should we be worried about our Browns receivers?
As mentioned in the introduction, the Steelers thrive in games that feature tough running, even tougher defense, and a final score that resembles a hockey game more than a football game (okay, I exaggerates, but when you’re invested in fantasy prospects, the Steelers aren’t the best draw for your players). This style of play is not really conducive to opposing receivers. Let’s just look at how some high-level passers performed against Pittsburgh this season:
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Drake London (2-15)
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Courtland Sutton (1-26)
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Quentin Johnston / Ladd McConkey (combined 5-88-1)
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Michael Pittman Jr. / Josh Downs (combined 14-195-1)
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Lamb CeeDee (5-62)
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Brock Bowers (9-71)
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Garrett Wilson / Davante Adams (combined 8-91)
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Malik Nabers (7-71)
Aside from Joe Flacco’s midgame eruption, the Steelers have, for the most part, kept opposing receivers in check, especially as the names and resumes have gotten brighter.
But let’s look at things in the context of this particular game. The Steelers should beat the Browns hands down, as the better team. But we cannot ignore one major factor: Jameis Winston.
Winston has been everything fantasy managers have dreamed of: his usual gunslinger, raising the ceilings of every Browns passer, no matter the game or situation. The Browns have also been incredibly pass-heavy since Winston took over; Whether that’s because they know the passing game gives them the best chance of winning or because they realize Nick Chubb won’t return to form this season remains to be seen. Nonetheless, Winston’s sassy nature revitalized David Njoku, Cedric Tillman, Jerry Jeudy and Elijah Moore. Njoku, Moore and Jeudy all had excellent games last week, although the Browns ultimately fell, 35-14.
Sure, the Saints’ injury-plagued defense pales in comparison to the Steelers’, but with Cleveland adopting a pass-first (and then when the pass fails, pass again) mindset, these pass catchers should all get a chance in this game. .
I’m very worried about Tillman, who will likely get targets but also be shadowed by Joey Porter Jr.. So while I expect more catches than last week, Tillman’s ceiling could be capped. Fortunately, Winston is no stranger to spreading the ball. I’m starting all of Tillman, Njoku and Jeudy, and I’m considering Moore in deep leagues.
Now let’s hope the weather permits – it looks like it might rain during the match.
Will Najee Harris continue this momentum?
It seems that ganging up on Najee Harris has been more common than singing his praises. He’s too slow, he doesn’t have power in his runs, he has to share the load with Jaylen Warren, he doesn’t catch passes.
Blah, blah, blah. All Harris has done since Week 6 is produce.
Even last week, when he was limited to less than 70 yards rushing, Harris still had 93 total yards on four catches. As Matt Harmon said this season, Russell Wilson has been a “touchdown or checkdown” quarterback (last week, Harris and Warren each caught four passes) in the context of the passing offense and play-action plays of the Steelers.
Basically, even in tough matchups, Harris has a safe floor and a solid ceiling. He enters this game on a touchdown streak or 90 total yards in five straight games. Expect the streak to continue tonight.
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Can Mike Williams be an MVS-lite for the Steelers?
Mike Williams joined the Steelers and immediately caught a pass for a deep touchdown. Basically, its bread and butter. And it’s a skill that works well with Russell Wilson’s deep ball strengths.
Of course, in his second game as a Steeler, Williams didn’t receive a single target, putting up a big zero for deep leaguers who took a chance on the big-play receiver in a plus game.
Williams is only rostered in 16% of leagues, down 4% from last week, which is understandable. But I’d keep him hidden on the bench if you can – it’s not impossible for Williams to settle into the MVS role, that 3-120-1 type of role. This probably wouldn’t change George Pickens or Harris’ prospects.
Williams was fighting a losing battle in a crowded Jets offensive weapons room. But he has room to flourish on this Steelers team, with the way it’s built and the way the offense likes to play. I remain cautiously optimistic about its addition; If he can produce a big play or two in a plus game tonight, I’m adding him off the waiver wire.
SITTING: Pat Freiermuth, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers
You’re probably reading the header above and thinking one of two things: 1) “Who cares about a TE who isn’t in the top 10?” or 2) “I’m not putting a starting tight end in, not when Kyle Pitts, Dalton Kincaid, Evan Engram and Taysom Hill are bye.”
And I understand both feelings. It’s not fun for me either. But just as you’re probably thinking about one of those two things, you also need to understand two other things. 1) Pat Freiermuth (54% of the roster) has seemingly been eliminated from the Steelers offense except for occasional short passes up the middle or a scrambling drill in the red zone – he has only passed the mark of three targets in none of his last shots. six games, and 2) the Browns have completely silenced opposing tight ends this season.
Don’t let the green of your fantasy app fool you: If you have a better option at TE this week (maybe you landed Will Dissly, Jonnu Smith or Zach Ertz or want to go deep with Ja’Tavion Sanders), fire them. up.
