Three reasons why the Packers will lose to the Dolphins

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers, who are heading into the playoffs with six wins in their last seven games, will host the Miami Dolphins, who are back in the playoff race with three straight wins, on Saturday night. Thanksgiving.

There are many reasons why the Packers will win againbut here are three reasons why they will lose.

1. The firepower of dolphins

It’s not a game without Jaire Alexander, but such are the circumstances as he recovers from a knee injury.

Alexander has been in and out of the lineup all year due to injuries. When he played, he was pretty excellent. When he’s been out, the Packers have struggled.

Green Bay is 2-2 with Alexander inactive. The victories? Against the Rams, who lined up without leading receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, and the 49ers, who started a backup quarterback. The losses were against Minnesota and Detroit, with their superb passing attacks.

Miami’s passing attack is as good as the NFL’s.

Since returning from a serious concussion, Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has ranked over the past five weeks:

– Second with a passer rating of 116.2 (Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson, 117.7).

– First with a completion percentage of 76.5 (Baker Mayfield of Tampa Bay, 72.9).

– First with plus-10 touchdowns against interceptions (11 touchdowns, one interception).

The Dolphins’ talented players would win any race. Tyreek Hill is arguably the most dangerous receiver in NFL history. He is second all-time with 12 touchdowns of 75-plus yards, behind Hall of Famers Devin Hester (14) and Ollie Matson (13).

Hill led the NFL in receiving yards and receiving touchdowns last season and Jaylen Waddle, who topped 1,000 receiving yards in each of his first three seasons, led the NFL in yards per catch 2022.

“They’re definitely the fastest group we’ve seen on tape so far,” Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley said. “We have to do it different ways – different coverages, different ways to try to slow them down. Ultimately you have to try to keep the ball in front of you. Hopefully some of the things we’re going to do, some of the adjustments we’re going to make will make that happen.

With defenses fearing long balls, Tagovailoa delighted in short balls. That’s why Hill averages just 11.7 yards per catch. Tagovailoa’s 5.59 air yards per attempt are by far the shortest in the NFL, but he enjoyed 6.18 yards after the catch, sixth highest.

It’s not just Hill and Waddle. Running back De’Von Achane, who led the NFL with a ridiculous 7.7 yards per catch last season, is tied with Hill with a team-leading 49 catches. The leaders in touchdowns are Achane (five) and tight end Jonnu Smith (four).

In the last five games, the Dolphins are second on third down (55.0%) and first on fourth down (100.0%). They are first in practice success (scoring on 56.3 percent of their drives), second with 3.02 points per drive and fifth in the red zone (73.7 percent).

A key for Green Bay will be tackling. According to SportRadar, only five teams have missed more. Among the 12 teams with the most missed tackles, Green Bay is the only one with a winning record.

Another key will be putting pressure on Tagovailoa, but good luck with that. Over the last five games, Miami is fifth in sack percentage allowed (5.3) and sixth in quarterback hits allowed (14).

“Tua, he does a great job throwing with anticipation,” LaFleur said. “He’s as good as it gets in this league. So, you need to make sure you try to disrupt the timing in some way, whether it’s to get him out of the situation, because he will make you pay.

“If there’s just a sliver of light in there, he trusts his widescreens to be in the right place. He hits his back foot and the ball slips out of his hands. So it’s a big challenge.

2. Situational gaps

Was Sunday’s win against the 49ers the breakthrough Green Bay’s offense has been looking for all season?

The Packers entered last week’s game ranked 27th in the red zone with a 48.7 percent touchdown rate. Against the 49ers, they went 5 of 5.

Before the game, the Packers’ red zone play selection was pretty close to a 50-50 split with 53 points and 46 assists. Against San Francisco, it was 13 points and three assists. Josh Jacobs ran for three touchdowns and Jordan Love threw for two more.

Regardless of approach, the Packers will face a stiff challenge against the Dolphins, who are seventh in red zone defense (48.3 percent TDs) and seventh in field goals remaining (64.7 percent TDs) . In the last three games, opponents are 1 of 6 in the red zone. Going back further, the opponents are only 6 out of 19.

It’s total domination of the most important part of the field. Whether it’s Jacobs using his power or Love using his arms and legs, the Packers need to show that last week’s red zone success wasn’t just a blip on the radar.

“The short weeks are tough but obviously you have to try to get as much film as possible and understand who you’re playing and then (learn) the game plan,” Love said.

“We have a short week, we are two days in one today with third downs and a red zone. So, everyone’s locked in here, staying in the playbook when we get home and obviously getting our bodies back and having everyone healthy is kind of the key.

3. Dolphins vs. the Big Game

The Packers’ offense relies on big plays. They are fourth in the league with 50 plays of 20+ yards. Broken down, they are sixth with 39 passes of 20 yards and fifth with 11 runs of more than 20 yards.

Miami, however, has only allowed 34 plays of 20+ yards – the seventh fewest in the league. Only five teams have allowed fewer 20-yard passes than Miami’s 27. Over the last four games, opposing quarterbacks have completed three passes on passes thrown more than 20 yards downfield.

“I think their defense is outstanding,” coach Matt LaFleur said. “It’s really difficult to make explosive plays against them. They’re really good in the red zone, third down, so I think it’s just a really good system.

“They do a great job and they have a lot of variation, so I think (defensive coordinator) Anthony Weaver and his staff, Joe B(arry), obviously, have been a big help to him. Weaver did a heck of a job there and they have some talented players and a good plan, so it’s going to be quite a challenge.

Miami’s defense forces offenses to take the long route to the end zone. That’s not exactly how Jordan Love wants to play, so he’ll have to play patiently against a defense that doesn’t give up big plays and accurately against a defense that goes fifth on third down.

“I’m definitely a guy that always wants those big plays, wants to put that pressure on a defense and take some of those shots,” Love said. “I think it’s also a credit to the guys that we have in the receiver room that I trust those guys to be able to take some of those shots.

“Those are the lessons I had to learn last year and I’m still learning, weighing the right time to take those shots, if guys are taking a step or if we’re getting the right coverage versus just finding these completions, because these checks and just finding out that these completions also sometimes turn into big plays I just understand where I need to go with the ball But I like to push the limits and push the ball down the. ground, that’s for sure.

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