The Bills are one of the most dominant teams in the league, and even if the 49ers were expected to be the same in 2024, their season has instead been defined by injury luck, at almost literally every position. With Brock Purdy suffering a concerning shoulder injury and Trent Williams out at left tackle, the 49ers offense would have been in a tough spot even without taking into account Buffalo’s tough defense or the problematic weather on Sunday. Snow and cold are probably not the cure for what ails the 49ers. The Bills are favored by 6.5 points with an over/under set at 44.5.
STRATEGIST
Josh Allen ($11,000 DK, $16,000 FD) is always a tough fade in a single match and the weather does nothing to change that here. That would be the case for most other quarterbacks, but between his rare throwing speed and especially his volume as a power runner, there’s reason to think Allen could post big numbers in this game, at both in the sense of a single game and in relation to general standards.
Brock Purdy ($9,200 DK, $13,500 FD) has less reason to be optimistic than Allen. Conditions are generally more concerning for Purdy, but when you add in his shoulder injury and the absence of Trent Williams at left tackle, it becomes a particularly perilous situation. Purdy is a player and can help his fantasy investors by running the ball, but producing that much as a passer seems somewhat unrealistic.
TO COME BACK
James Cook ($9,600 DK, $13,000 FD) I should be in a good place here
The Bills are one of the most dominant teams in the league, and even if the 49ers were expected to be the same in 2024, their season has instead been defined by injury luck, at almost literally every position. With Brock Purdy suffering a concerning shoulder injury and Trent Williams out at left tackle, the 49ers offense would have been in a tough spot even without taking into account Buffalo’s tough defense or the problematic weather on Sunday. Snow and cold are probably not the cure for what ails the 49ers. The Bills are favored by 6.5 points with an over/under set at 44.5.
STRATEGIST
Josh Allen ($11,000 DK, $16,000 FD) is always a tough fade in a single match and the weather does nothing to change that here. That would be the case for most other quarterbacks, but between his rare throwing speed and especially his volume as a power runner, there’s reason to think Allen could post big numbers in this game, at both in the sense of a single game and in relation to general standards.
Brock Purdy ($9,200 DK, $13,500 FD) has less reason to be optimistic than Allen. Conditions are generally more concerning for Purdy, but when you add in his shoulder injury and the absence of Trent Williams at left tackle, it becomes a particularly perilous situation. Purdy is a player and can help his fantasy investors by running the ball, but producing that much as a passer seems somewhat unrealistic.
TO COME BACK
James Cook ($9,600 DK, $13,000 FD) should be in good position here against a beat-up San Francisco defense that figures to spend a lot of time on the field, including potentially on short fields. Cook has been scoring touchdowns at a high rate all year and the Bills should spend a lot of time in scoring range. Ray Davis ($2,800 DK, $7,000 FD) could capitalize for similar reasons, especially if the 49ers are really struggling and the game is getting away from them. Ty Johnson is fully capable of appearing on the box score himself, although his reps usually have more to do with passing situations.
Christian McCaffrey ($10,600 DK, $15,500 FD) is one of the few 49ers players who will clearly be heavily used in this game. Regardless of the direction of the game, the 49ers need to give McCaffrey reps, especially with Purdy and the passing game compromised. Jordan Mason ($2,400 DK, $7,500 FD) is a capable player and could be more of a part of the game plan than usual, especially if the 49ers call for more power plays than they normally would, and if Purdy had been fully healthy. Isaac Guerendo is a talented RB3, but is unlikely to see snaps if McCaffrey and Mason stay healthy.
WIDE RECEIVER + TIGHT END
The conditions probably make things more difficult for all pass catchers in this game, but Amari Cooper ($7,200 DK, $10,000 FD) And Khalil Shakir ($8,000 DK, $11,000 FD) should be viable fantasy options for the Bills. Shakir should primarily leak from the slot, where the 49ers are without Deommodore Lenoir in the corner, and that’s a really good matchup. Regardless of which receiver avoids Charvarius Ward, the matchup is equally favorable, and therefore any of Keon Coleman ($6,400 DK, $9,500 FD), Curtis Samuel ($4,400 DK, $7,500 FD) or to a lesser extent Mack Hollins ($3,600 DK, $8,000 FD) could capitalize if they find themselves in this place. Coleman and Samuel may have to share playing time from here, while Hollins is normally more of a blocker. Tight end Dawson Knox ($4,000 DK, $7,000 FD) could be in a good spot for a playaction touchdown in the red zone.
Deebo Samuel ($9,000 DK, $11,500 FD) He may not be fully healthy – the 49ers haven’t used him as a running back in recent games, although they really could have used a big ground play or two – but it still seems like Samuel is the best option among San Francisco’s wide players. He has the YAC upside that no one else can emulate, and Purdy probably won’t be able to get going down the field. George Kittle ($8,600 DK, $12,000 FD) is just as good a YAC threat as Samuel, and of course, Kittle is fully capable of being the 49ers’ best pass catcher in any given game. As much as Samuel and Kittle have a higher projection, Jauan Jennings ($7,400 DK, $10,500 FD) could be the 49ers’ primary pass catcher himself. Jennings tends to run shorter routes and is physical enough to intimidate defenders in traffic, but he probably can’t create the explosives that Samuel and Kittle can create. Ricky Pearsall ($4,800 DK, $8,000 FD) has talent but is probably in a tough situation here between Purdy’s injury and the weather. Kyle Juszczyk ($2,000 DK, $6,000 FD) sometimes work comes out of the backfield, but usually in low volume and unpredictably.
KICKER
Tyler Bass ($5,400 DK, $8,500 FD) only attempted one field goal from beyond 40 yards in his 11 games played in December or later, so especially with this weather, it seems unlikely that Bass will have the opportunity to kick anything other than chip shots. This isn’t ideal for his fantasy value, although he was otherwise accurate with his winter kicks (at close range).
The bass is seasoned to situations like these, but Jake Moody ($5,200 DK, $8,500 FD) has less experience in brutal situations like this, even after playing at Michigan in college. Additionally, the 49ers offense does not anticipate many scoring opportunities in this game. Moody seems like a good kicker who could improve over time, but current circumstances don’t seem favorable.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
San Francisco ($3,200 DK, $9,000 FD) will almost certainly be playing with a hot engine to start the game, but they might struggle to maintain the point of attack as the game progresses. Both the offense and defense are hurting badly for San Francisco, and so the defense might have to spend a lot of time on the field. The absences of Nick Bosa and Deommodore Lenoir are compounded by the fact that Fred Warner is playing with a broken ankle bone, creating a particularly desperate situation for the 49ers at a particularly inopportune time.
THE Bills ($5,000 DK, $9,000 FD) the defense is probably better positioned to produce fantasy points here. The 49ers should be taken seriously, but they are also walking around seriously injured. This type of context should be one where the Bills defense is in its prime, and the 49ers will never be more vulnerable.
