The Colts’ 38-30 win over the Tennessee Titans on Sunday kept them alive in the AFC playoffs, although they remain in a precarious position and need a lot of help to reach the playoffs for the first time since 2020.
Heading into Week 17, the Colts currently hold eighth place in the AFC and are two games behind the Denver Broncos for the conference’s final wild card spot (* division clinched, + playoff spot clinched ):
- Kansas City Chiefs (14-1)*
- Buffalo Bills (12-3)*
- Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5)+
- Houston Texans (9-6)*
- Baltimore Ravens (10-5)+
- Los Angeles Chargers (9-6)
- Denver Broncos (9-6)
- Indianapolis Colts (7-8)
- Miami Dolphins (7-8)
- Cincinnati Bengals (7-8)
The only two teams the Colts can catch up to in the standings are the Chargers and Broncos. The Houston Texans won the AFC South in Week 15 with their victory over the Dolphins and the Colts’ loss to the Broncos.
The combination of the Colts’ win, the Broncos’ loss and the Dolphins’ and Bengals’ wins in Week 16 put the Colts’ playoff chances at 18% entering Week 17, according to the New York Times.
The Colts will enter the playoffs as a wild card if they win their remaining games against the New York Giants (2-13) and Jacksonville Jaguars (3-12) and one of the following two scenarios occurs :
Scenario 1: The Los Angeles Chargers lost their last road games against the New England Patriots (3-12) and the Las Vegas Raiders (3-12). That would tie the Colts and Chargers with records of 9-8; without a head-to-head tiebreaker, the Colts would advance thanks to a better AFC record (the Chargers would be 6-6 and the Colts 7-5 against AFC opposition). If the Colts, Broncos, and Chargers were all to finish with a 9-8 record, the Colts would be the highest-ranked team among the three and would make the playoffs based on the AFC’s record.
Scenario 2: The Denver Broncos lose their remaining games to the Cincinnati Bengals (7-8) and the Kansas City Chiefs (14-1) AND the Bengals and/or Miami Dolphins win their remaining games. Cincinnati ends the season against Denver and the Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5), while the Dolphins host the Cleveland Browns (3-12) and the New York Jets (4-11) to end 2024.
In the second scenario, the Colts, Broncos and a third (or even fourth) team are all 9-8. Because the three or four teams will not have played each other this season, the tiebreaker goes to conference record.
If the tiebreaker goes between the Colts, Broncos and Bengals in this 9-8 scenario, the Colts would win it thanks to their 7-5 conference record, better than the Broncos (who would have a 5 record). -7) and the Bengals (who would be 7-5). be 6-6). If the tiebreaker involves the Dolphins, who would also be 7-5 in AFC play, the Broncos (and possibly the Bengals) would be eliminated based on conference record, and then it would amount to a tiebreaker head-to-head tie between the Colts and Dolphins. , which the Colts own based on their 16-10 win over Miami in Week 7.
The Colts have a real chance to put some pressure on the Broncos and/or Chargers — or be eliminated from the playoffs — by the time they open against the Giants at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday. That’s because there are two critical games Saturday involving the Chargers and Broncos:
Chargers at Patriots, 1 p.m.: A Chargers win clinches a wild card spot for Los Angeles; a Chargers loss increases the Colts’ playoff chances to 35 percent with a win against the Giants.
Broncos at Bengals, 4:30 p.m.: Denver clinches playoff spot with win; a Broncos loss and a Colts win increases the Colts’ playoff chances to 36 percent.
If the Chargers and Broncos win on Saturday, the Colts will be eliminated from the playoffs. If the Chargers and Broncos lose on Saturday and the Colts win on Sunday, the Colts will enter Week 18 with a 38% chance of making the playoffs.
Browns at Dolphins, 4:05 p.m. Sunday: If you’re building the perfect weekend, it starts with the Colts winning, the Chargers and Broncos losing, and the Dolphins winning. The New York Times gives the Colts a 45 percent chance of making the playoffs in this scenario; it would still take the Chargers or Broncos to lose in Week 18, but a Miami win would give the Colts another three-way tiebreaker opportunity with Denver if it came down to that.
Chiefs at Steelers, 1 p.m. Christmas Day; Jets at Bills, 1 p.m. Sunday: A Chiefs loss and a Bills win means the AFC’s No. 1 seed won’t be locked in by Week 18, which would lead Kansas City to face Patrick Mahomes and his starters in Week 18 against the Broncos in Denver. If the Chiefs have the No. 1 seed locked up by Week 18, the expectation here is that Andy Reid won’t play the majority of his starters, which would theoretically increase Denver’s chances of winning in the course of week 18.
None of that matters if the Chargers and Broncos win on Saturday or the Colts lose on Sunday. But if enough things break the Colts’ way this weekend, it could create a situation where a Colts win over the Jaguars late in the season puts pressure on the Broncos or Chargers – and leads to an incredible watch from the dashboard the first weekend of 2025.
The kickoff date and time for the Colts’ season finale against the Jacksonville Jaguars will be announced at the conclusion of the Week 17 games.
