MONITOR MATCHUPS
When the Patriots run – Edge: Patriots
The Patriots’ ground game is on the rise and the Chargers’ defense has struggled to contain the run much of the season. Los Angeles ranks 19thth in the league, allowing 124.1 yards per game on the ground. But the numbers are much worse when looking at yards per carry, where the Chargers sit at 27.thallowing 4.7 yards per pop. Rhamondre Stevenson and a rejuvenated Antonio Gibson have brought the Patriots’ ground game to life, at least when the scoring allows Alex Van Pelt to hold on to it. Stevenson was productive in Buffalo last week, averaging 5 yards per carry on 12 attempts, but he also fumbled for the seventh time this season and earned a spot on the bench. Gibson also fumbled in the Bills game and wasn’t as effective as he has been lately, but the two have balanced the offense in recent weeks. The Chargers’ front features Poona Ford and Otito Ogbonnia inside protective linebackers Denzel Perryman and Daiyan Henley, but this group has been porous at times. The Broncos had some early success against Los Angeles before the Chargers’ second-half adjustments limited the damage after the break. The Patriots will look to maintain production in the running game against the Chargers.
When the Patriots pass – Edge: Chargers
LA’s defense is much more effective against the passing game. The Chargers allow 213.8 yards per game through the air (13th) and 6.4 yards per pass, which places him seventh. The secondary was stingy with 14 interceptions, led by rookie Tarheeb Still’s four. He still occupies a corner with Kristian Fulton on the other side while Derwin James excels in a hybrid role. Safeties Tony Jefferson and Elijah Molden, along with corner Cam Hart, round out the secondary. The group has done a good job keeping things together without starters Asante Samuel Jr., Eli Apple and Alohi Gilman, all of whom are on injured reserve. Drake Maye continues to show promise as a starter for the Patriots, but also a propensity to turn the ball over. Against the Bills, he was very accurate on the first two series, leading touchdowns on every possession. But things went off the rails dramatically from there, and in the second half he turned the ball over twice, giving him 15 (10 interceptions, five lost fumbles) in his 10 starts. Maye must protect the ball against an opportunistic secondary that thrives on mistakes. The Chargers have a plus-10 turnover rate, and that has been a big part of the team’s success.
When the Chargers work – Edge: Chargers
Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh wants to run the football and emphasize physicality on his team, and while Los Angeles hasn’t been able to do that effectively this season, it’s a formula that has worked. The combination of JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards has totaled 12 rushing touchdowns and 259 carries, but the Chargers rank 23rd in the league averaging 106.5 yards per game on the ground. Dobbins was the more efficient of the two, averaging 4.8 yards per carry, but injuries limited him to 158 carries this year. He’s currently on IR but practiced last week before the Broncos game, and with 10 days off, he should be ready to return. The Patriots have struggled to stop the run for most of the season, and that was the case again in Buffalo. The Bills racked up 172 rushing yards, including 100 on just 11 carries from James Cook. The linebackers continue to struggle to fill gaps up front, as Cook gashed them for a 46-yard touchdown in the second quarter. Despite Los Angeles’ modest production, New England’s issues stopping the run could allow Harbaugh to punch the ball early and often behind a strong offensive line featuring standout tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt.
When the Chargers pass – Edge: Patriots
The Patriots secondary is coming off one of the best games it has played all season, limiting Josh Allen and the Bills to just 154 yards through the air. Christian Gonzalez continued his strong season while Jonathan Jones, Alex Austin and safety Marte Mapu also provided tight coverage against an offense that had been red-hot. The challenge won’t be as daunting against a Chargers passing attack featuring rookie Ladd McConkey, the team leader with 69 receptions for 960 yards and five touchdowns. Sophomore Quentin Johnston leads the team with eight touchdowns, but has only 37 catches for 477 yards this season. Tight end Will Dissly (43-418-1) and wideout Joshua Palmer (35-543-1) also see plenty of targets from Justin Herbert, who is enjoying a strong campaign. Herbert has 18 touchdowns against just three picks despite dealing with ankle injuries throughout the year. His protection has been spotty at times as he has been sacked 40 times, but few possess his raw ability as a passer. The Patriots haven’t had much pressure at quarterback this season, but Herbert hasn’t had enough consistent options to make opponents pay for most of the year.
Special Teams – Edge: Chargers
Harbaugh’s imprint on the Chargers can also be seen on special teams, where Los Angeles has improved immensely compared to the recent past. Cameron Dicker made 31 of 33 PATs and 27 or 30 field goals, including a 58-yarder on a free kick against the Broncos last Thursday night. Punt coverage has been solid, allowing an average of 9.4 yards per return, while Derius Davis has been effective returning both punts (13.8 yard average) and kicks (28.2). The Patriots were without dangerous Marcus Jones against the Bills due to a hip injury. Veteran Alex Erickson took his place after being signed to the practice squad earlier in the week and brought up for the game. This is a big loss for the Patriots’ homecoming game. Punter JK Scott is normally busy but has just four touchbacks on his 69 kicks, including 27 downed inside the 20. The Patriots’ tandem of Joey Slye and Bryce Baringer has been inconsistent for much of the season, but everyone was solid in the loss to the Bills. The weather could be a factor in the kicking game, especially for visitors coming from the west coast and unaccustomed to facing the elements.
