This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
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NFL odds changes and line moves
The purpose of this article is to examine the key line movements of the week and what they mean in terms of betting. The key numbers to watch in the NFL are 3, 7, 6, 14 and 10. When a line crosses one of these, it deserves special attention.
On the total side, the key figures are 41, 43, 37, 44, 51, 33, 47.
NFL Week 17 Odds (Opening, Current)
- Kansas City Chiefs -4.0 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers O/U 42.5 (Chiefs -3.0 O/U 43.5)
- Baltimore Ravens -1.5 vs. Houston Texans O/U 46.5 (Ravens -5.5 O/U 46.5)
- Seattle Seahawks vs. Chicago Bears -3.5 O/U 45.5 (Seahawks -3.5 O/U 43.5)
- Los Angeles Chargers -2.5 vs. New England Patriots O/U 41.0 (Chargers -4.0 O/U 42.5)
- Denver Broncos vs. Cincinnati Bengals -7.5 O/U 45.5 (Bengals -3.5 O/U 50.0)
- Arizona Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Rams -5.5 O/U 48.5 (Rams -6.5 O/U 48.0)
- New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills -2.5 O/U 45.5 (Bills -10.5 O/U 46.0)
- Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars -4.0 O/U 46.0 (Jaguars -1.5 O/U 39.5)
- Las Vegas Raiders vs. New Orleans Saints -2.0 O/U 43.0 (Raiders -1.0 O/U 37.5)
- Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4.5 O/U 43.5 (Bucs -8.0 O/U 49.5)
- Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles -2.0 O/U 47.0 (Eagles -9.0 O/U 41.0)
- Indianapolis Colts -2.0 vs. New York Giants O/U 43.5 (Colts -8.0 O/U 40.5)
- Miami Dolphins vs. Cleveland Browns -2.0 O/U 44.5 (Dolphins -6.5 O/U 40.0)
- Green Bay Packers -2.0 vs. Minnesota Vikings O/U 45.5 (Vikings -1.0 O/U 49.0)
- Atlanta Falcons -2.0 and Washington Commanders O/U 46.0 (Commanders -4.0 O/U 47.5)
- Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers -4.5 O/U 49.5 (Lions -3.5 O/U 51.0)
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Key NFL Week 17 Injury News
QB – Jalen hurts (PHI)
RB – Kenneth Walker (SEA), James Conner (ARI), Miles Sanders (CAR), Isaac Guerendo (KC), JK Dobbins (LAC), Justice Hill (BAL),
WR – Tank Dell (HOU), CeeDee Lamb (DAL), Drake London (ATL), George Pickens (PIT), Zay Flowers (BAL), Jalen Tolbert (DAL)
NFL Week 17 Odds Observations
- The highest spread is Jets/Bills -10.0; lowest spreads are Titans/Jaguars and Raiders/Saints, both -1.0
- Highest game total is 49ers/Lions 51.5; lowest total is Raiders/Saints 38.5
- There are 9 road favorites in Week 17
- There are 5 games with at least one 7-point line move
- The highest team totals are the Bills, Rams, Bucs, Lions, Eagles and Bengals.
- The lowest team totals are the Giants, Cowboys, Browns and Jets.
- You’ll see a “tax” on the lines in games where one team needs the game for the playoffs, but the other team has nothing left to play.
NFL Week 17 Line Moves
Seattle Seahawks vs. Chicago Bears
This is one of those games where one team needs it to keep their playoff chances alive and the other team has nothing to play for. This is the main reason for the movement of the 7 point line.
The Bears opened as -3.5-point home favorites, but the line moved to the Seahawks -1.0 last week and has steadily climbed in their favor to -3.5.
Chicago has lost 9 in a row and ranks bottom 5 in total offense and total defense, while the Seahawks are 7-1 SU in their last 8 road games.
New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills
The Jets are one of the teams seeing the biggest line moves of the week, as they have failed to live up to expectations. The Bills also exceeded their goals despite losing several key players to free agency. Josh Allen has put this team on his back and is the favorite to win the NFL MVP.
The Bills opened as -2.5 point home favorites and the line moved up 8 points to -10.5. Even with the huge line movement, this still seems a bit underrated, despite being a divisional game rivalry. That line was -9.5 early Tuesday and took another full point on the Bills.
After playing numerous unders to start the season, the overs are now hitting in Jets games, going 7-3 in their last 10.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Much like the Jets, the Cowboys have seen their lines move considerably every week since Week 1, largely due to Dak Prescott’s injury. The Eagles opened as -2.0 point home favorites in Week 1 and when play reopened, they moved to -11.5. After Jalen Hurts’ concussion, he dropped 4 points to -7.5 and -7.0. The line has now moved back in favor of the Eagles to -10.5, then -9.5, and now sits at Eagles -9.0. To make matters worse, Kenny Pickett is also dealing with a rib issue, so the Eagles’ quarterback situation is up in the air as of Tuesday morning.
The total opened at 47.0 and has bounced from 43.5, 44.5, 42.0, 44.5, 43.0 and now a low of 41.0 (current).
Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers have dealt with some significant injuries this season, leading them to a disappointing 6-9 record, including 1-5 in their last 6 games. The Lions are still the number one seed in the NFC, although they have also had their share of injuries. injuries in recent weeks.
The Niners opened as -4.5 point home favorites and the line moved up to the Lions -4.0, making it a full 8.5 swing. Interestingly enough, the total opened at 49.5 and rose to 50.5 (peaking at 51.5).
