This time last season, the No. 1 pick in the upcoming NFL Draft was set. THE Carolina Panthers were at least two games behind every other NFL team in the win column and had finished first overall (to the Chicago Bears, of course).
This season is quite different. Four teams enter the final week of the regular season tied for the worst record in the league. THE New England Patriots, Tennessee Titans, Cleveland BrownsAnd New York Giants are all aged between 3 and 13 years old.
New England sits in first place entering Week 18. Here’s how each of these four teams could end up with the top pick in the 2025 NFL Draft:
How the Patriots can get the No. 1 pick
Of these four teams, the Patriots have the worst strength of schedule at .467. This is useful for the No. 1 pick if the Patriots are tied for the worst record in the NFL, such as entering the season finale.
If New England loses, it retains the No. 1 pick. If they win against a Bills team that could be rested starters, they would also need the other three teams at 3-13 to win. They would then be tied 4-13 with the others and win the No. 1 pick based on the strength of their schedule.
How the Titans can get the No. 1 pick
Tennessee is next in line to get the No. 1 pick based on strength of schedule at .515. The Titans need a loss to the Texans and a Patriots win to secure the No. 1 pick.
After a 31-2 loss to the Baltimore Ravens, Houston coach DeMeco Ryans said “Everyone must be ready to go” for the game against Tennessee. That means Houston’s starters could play against Tennessee and improve the Titans’ chances with a loss and a No. 1 pick.
How the Browns can get the No. 1 pick
The Giants’ win over Indianapolis in Week 17 benefited the Browns more than anyone at the top of the current NFL Draft. Cleveland is the only team in this group whose Week 18 opponent is a playoff team fighting for a division title. The Ravens need a win against the Browns to secure the AFC North title and the third seed in the AFC playoffs.
Cleveland could get the No. 1 pick by losing to Baltimore and winning over both New England and Tennessee. Their strength of schedule is the second highest in the group at 0.540.
How the Giants can get the No. 1 pick
New York had the inside track to the top pick this time a week ago. Now it’s not so clear. The Giants face an Eagles team that will be a rested starter in their regular season finale.
New York needs a loss to Philadelphia as well as wins by New England, Tennessee and Cleveland to reclaim the No. 1 pick. Their strength of schedule is the highest of the group at .551, which works against them in securing the No. 1 pick.
Who else can get the No. 1 pick?
There is a deadlock of five NFL teams at 4-12, but none of them have been able to move into first place. Even if these four teams win and the Jacksonville Jaguars – currently No. 5 – lose, they would be No. 2 behind New England due to the strength of the schedule.
If New England, Tennessee, Cleveland and New York all win, here’s how it could benefit some teams:
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Jacksonville would drop from No. 5 to No. 2 with a loss to Indianapolis
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Carolina would drop from No. 6 to No. 3 with a loss to Atlanta
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New York Jets would drop from No. 7 to No. 4 with loss to Miami
2025 NFL Draft Order
Here is the full order of the first round, according to Tankathon.com:
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New England Patriots: record 3-13; .467 strength of schedule
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Tennessee Titans: 3-13; .515 SOS
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Cleveland Browns: 3-13; .540 SOS
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New York Giants: 3-13; .551 SOS
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Jacksonville Jaguars: 4-12; .474 SOS
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Carolina Panthers: 4-12; .496 SOS
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New York Jets: 4-12; .500 SOS
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Las Vegas Raiders: 4-12; .544 SOS
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Chicago Bear: 4-12; .555 SOS
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New Orleans Saints: 5-11; .507 SOS
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San Francisco 49ers: 6-10; .566 SOS
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Indianapolis Colts: 7-9; .460 SOS
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Dallas Cowboys: 7-9; .518 SOS
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Arizona Cardinals: 7-9; .537 SOS
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Miami Dolphins: 8-8; .415 SOS
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Cincinnati Bengals: 8-8; .478 SOS
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Atlanta Falcons: 8-8; .518 SOS
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Seattle Seahawks: 9-7; .504 SOS
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Houston Texans: 9-7; .485 SOS
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Denver Broncos: 9-7; .500 SOS
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 9-7; .504 SOS
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Los Angeles Chargers: 10-6; .467 SOS
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Los Angeles Rams: 10-6; .504 SOS
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Green Bay Packers: 11-5; .533 SOS
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Pittsburgh Steelers: 10-6; .496 SOS
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Washington Commanders: 11-5; .434 SOS
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Baltimore Ravens: 11-5; .533 SOS
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Philadelphia Eagles: 13-3; .460 SOS
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Buffalo Bills: 13-3; .460 SOS
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Minnesota Vikings: 14-2; .471 SOS
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Detroit Lions: 14-2; .522 SOS
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Kansas City Chiefs: 15-1; .487 SOS
This article was originally published on USA TODAY: No. 1 pick scenarios for the Patriots, Titans, Giants and Browns
