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Denver Broncos Odds, Picks & Predictions @ Buffalo Bills
After a season that exceeded expectations, Bo Nix and the Broncos take on the Buffalo Bills in an AFC wild-card showdown. Unsurprisingly, the Bills are strong home favorites, but Denver’s defense gives Sean Payton’s team a chance in any environment.
Read on as we break down the odds and best bets.
Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills Betting Odds
*Best lines at time of writing listed
Money line: Bills -440 (DraftKings Sportsbook)/ Broncos +400 (BetMGM Sportsbook)
Point spread: Bills -8.5 (-114 FanDuel Sportsbook)/ Broncos +9 (-115 BetMGM Sportsbook)
Totals: Under 48 points (bet365 Sportsbook)/Over 47.5 points (BetMGM Sportsbook)
The spread for this game saw complete stability, as the number remained 8.5 or 9 points in favor of the Bills throughout the week. The total saw a little more movement, but overall remained in a tight range between 46.5 and 47.5 points.
Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills Betting Picks
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Nix more than validated the trust of the Broncos coaching staff, throwing for 3,775 yards with 29 touchdowns and 12 interceptions while adding 430 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns and playing in all 17 games. The 12th overall pick was also at his best down the stretch, posting a 19:6 TD:INT over the final seven games and throwing multiple touchdown passes in six of those contests.
Still, like many talented young quarterbacks taking their first dip into the playoff waters, Nix faces big challenges Sunday. The Bills’ defense hasn’t been elite, but it’s a safe bet that the combination of a postseason environment and a raucous crowd will take their performance level up a notch. The chance to come after a rookie making his first playoff start doesn’t hurt either.
Buffalo was actually on the periphery of the upper echelon of home defense, allowing the fifth fewest points (17.6), yards per play (4.9) and total yards per game (291.1). in this division. The Bills also gave up an NFL-low 8.0 yards per pass at home, which doesn’t bode well for Nix and Denver’s passing game.
On the other side, MVP favorite Josh Allen also has a daunting task ahead of him in the form of the Broncos’ own stalwart unit. However, Denver has been a bit more generous on the road, allowing 332.2 yards per game (compared to 300.1 YPG at home) and 21.3 points per game (14.9 PPG at home). The Broncos can still cause plenty of disruption in any offense, but Allen is well-rested after taking Week 18 off (minus one game) and will have his full arsenal of pass-catching weapons at his disposal after often had to make do with an injury. reduced crew throughout the season.
I expect a less marked first half as both teams get a feel for each other during the first two quarters. However, I can see the much more playoff-savvy General and team eventually setting the pace in the second half and pulling out a solid victory with the help of a solid passing day from Allen.
- SGP: moneyline invoices and Josh Allen Over 225 passing yards (-106 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
Broncos @ Bills Prediction
Bills 24, Broncos 17
Although a good defense often takes over a good offense, I don’t think that’s the case here. Buffalo’s home-field advantage is as real as it gets, and Allen and co. are on a mission to finally atone for so many recent missed opportunities. While Nix and the Broncos won’t go quietly, Allen’s deep playoff experience and talent are the X-factors that will lead the Bills into the next round.
