The Los Angeles Chargers have some heavyweight names heading to free agency this offseason, with running back JK Dobbins topping the list.
Dobbins had a good season on his one-year contract, but I also struggled with injuries it forced him to enter into this type of contract in the first place.
Here’s a look at the contract’s expected value as well as the pros and cons of Dobbins’ trip to the open market.
Dobbins has a market value of $7.3 million in average annual salary, per Spotrac. That roughly indicates a three-year deal worth almost $22 million. But the veteran running back had an average salary of $1.6 million this year. Projections on running backs are tricky, though, and that value could end up significantly exceeding what he gets based on his injury history.
Dobbins played in 13 games this year, totaling 905 yards and nine touchdowns with an average of 4.6 per carry. He’s very clearly one of the best running backs in the NFL on the field and an obvious workhorse, a back who also does well in pass protection. He is only 26 years old and a former second round pick. So it would make sense to keep him on a deal with incentives based on playing time.
Availability. Dobbins played in 15 games as a rookie, missed all of 2021, then played in eight games in 2022 and just one in 2023. He missed four regular season games this year. There is always the risk that the market will inflate its price too much. Due to inconsistent attendance, the Chargers simply can’t rely on him as their primary option for an entire season.
Dobbins would return to an incentive-based deal over two to three years, which would be ideal. But that shouldn’t stop the Chargers from addressing the position, perhaps even in the first round. He’s an obvious Jim Harbaugh guy and he could excel and stay healthy in a longer rotation with another effective back.
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