Even though Derrick Henry runs like he’s back with the Alabama Crimson Tide, it’s worth remembering that he’s 30 years old and in his ninth season in the NFL. Most running backs don’t last that long in this league, but Henry isn’t like most running backs.
Now with the Baltimore Ravens, Henry has rushed for a league-leading 134 times for 873 yards and eight touchdowns and that’s only seven games ago.
The NFL record for total yards in a season is held by Eric Dickerson, who ran for 2,105 yards with the Los Angeles Rams in 1984. That was in 16 games, mind you, and Henry now has 17 to play with.
“It’s there,” said Henry’s teammate, quarterback Lamar Jackson, when asked if he believes big running back can break the NFL’s single-season rushing record, via Jamison Hensley of ESPN. “I feel like he has a good chance of doing it. I think he can do it. I believe he can do it.
The 6-foot-2, 247-pound running back is averaging a league-high 124.7 yards per game. In 16 games, that would put him at around 1,995 yards, but with the 17th additional game, he would check in at 2,220, which would break Dickerson’s record of 115 yards.
Henry may not even need that extra 17th game. He rushed for 2,027 yards with the Titans in 2020 in 16 games, putting him just shy of 100 yards from Dickerson’s record.
It’s more than possible that this is the season where Henry does it, but that’s not his focus at the moment.
“I don’t really try to think about it,” Henry said of the record. “Just focus on my job and getting better and better every week.” I’m not really trying to get into the statistics of things. I focus on the team’s goals.
Henry isn’t focused on the record, but being in a place like Baltimore will definitely help him get there. He has a solid offensive line in front of him and Jackson at quarterback – who is both a running and throwing threat – takes a ton of defensive pressure off him.
Add in the fact that he’s still a tank for winning this many seasons in his career and seemingly hasn’t lost a single burst, and there’s no reason to expect him to slow down .
That said, it’s time for predictions.
What will Derrick Henry’s final rushing total be?
If Henry maintains his current pace of 124.7 rushing yards per game, he will record 2,220, but it doesn’t seem reasonable to maintain that clip for the remaining 10 games.
Why then?
For one thing, the Ravens have yet to face the Pittsburgh Steelers twice and they have the third-best rushing defense in the league, allowing just 81 yards per game on the ground. There are also three top ten rushing defenses remaining on the Ravens’ schedule: the Houston Texans (109.3 yards per game), the Los Angeles Chargers (111.2 yards per game) and the Denver Broncos (111.7 yards per game). Henry needs 1,232 yards to match Dickerson, so let’s do the math.
Let’s give the Steelers their due and say they’ll hold Henry to just 90 yards. So that’s 180 yards for the two games against the Steelers. Then also assume that the Texans, Broncos, and Chargers will remain strong against the rush, but Henry is Henry, so we’ll give him 100 yards in every game.
That’s 300 yards against the Texans, Broncos and Chargers, plus the 180 yards in the Steelers’ two games, putting Henry at 480 more yards.
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That would put him at 1,353 yards with five games left to do the math, meaning he would have to rush for 150.4 yards per game over those five games in order to match Dickerson.
It’s possible for a back like Henry, but he’ll also face the Cleveland Browns twice (including Week 8) and the New York Giants. These teams will have nothing to play for and therefore no reason to jump in front of him for a big tackle.
As such, let’s assume he gets 200 yards in one of these games against the Browns (he’s had over 200 six times in his career) and does it again against the Giants. In the remaining games, we’ll give him his current average of 124 yards per game.
So now we have our predictions for the rest of the season. There is a mathematician somewhere who can figure all this out in his head, but for the reader’s convenience, let’s lay it out with the remaining program.
Derrick Henry against Browns on 10/27: 200 yards
Derrick Henry against Broncos on 11/3: 100 yards
Derrick Henry against Bengals on 7/11: 124 yards
Derrick Henry against Steelers on 11/17: 90 yards
Derrick Henry against Chargers on 11/25: 100 yards
Derrick Henry against Eagles on 12/1: 124 yards
Derrick Henry against Giants on 12/15: 200 yards
Derrick Henry against Steelers on 12/21: 90 yards
Derrick Henry against the Texans on 12/25: 100 yards
Derrick Henry against Browns at 1/5: 124 yards
That would put Henry at 2,125 yards, meaning he would break Dickerson’s record by 20 yards in Week 17.
