Los Angeles is taking the Jim Harbaugh Show to a more permanent location on the national stage starting this week, as the Chargers playing three primetime games over the next four weeks thanks to Sunday’s game against the Bengals being transformed into Sunday Night Football.
At 6-3, the Chargers should be happy with their playoff chances, which currently sit at 80% according to NFL Network. A win, however, would inflate that number up to 91%, virtually guaranteeing that Los Angeles would continue playing until mid-January.
Here’s what they need to do to make it a reality.
Cast Gus Edwards
The Chargers found a little spark on the field last week in Edwards’ return to action after four weeks on injured reserve with an ankle injury, as the veteran had three rushing carries. ‘at least nine yards last week against Tennessee. Although Cincinnati hasn’t been a great run defense all season, the Bengals have held three of their last four opponents to fewer than 100 yards rushing.
Edwards will be the key to unlocking this, as Cincinnati is vulnerable up the middle. Los Angeles has also looked much more comfortable with a running back they trust alongside JK Dobbins rather than a mix of rookie Kimani Vidal and kick returner Hassan Haskins (who ran for a touchdown last week) alongside the former Raven.
Exceed peak productivity
Tuli Tuipulotu’s 5.5 sacks have come in the last three games, which has been crucial to Los Angeles’ success rushing the passer. After a slow start, even with Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa healthy, the Chargers have sacked quarterbacks 18 times over the past three weeks while Mack (groin) and Bosa (hip) have been injured.
Los Angeles continues to add Bosa back into the lineup — he played 21 snaps last week — but Mack did not practice this week and was limited to just four snaps against Tennessee. The 33-year-old plans to play on Sunday, but his role is very much in question. For the Bengals, left tackle Orlando Brown Jr., who has allowed just eight pressures in eight games, appears poised to return from the knee and fibula soreness that kept him out of the last two games.
Keep Cincinnati behind the sticks
Cincinnati has been one of the league’s best offenses this season, but the Bengals’ success has been heavily driven by a strong passing game led by Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase. However, Cincinnati is averaging just 0.7 yards before contact on carries this season, which is seventh worst in the league, so the Chargers can force them into third-and-long situations where Burrow and Chase have to making dazzling plays to keep drives alive.
The Bengals running backs have also struggled with ball security this season. Starter Chase Brown has fumbled twice in his last five games, and recently acquired Khalil Herbert fumbled on his only carry last week against Baltimore.
Man standing
It may seem counterintuitive to play man coverage against the Bengals, who will also get Tee Higgins back on Sunday, but Burrow is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL against zone coverage. The Chargers have played zone on 83.7 percent of their defensive snaps this season, the third-highest rate in the league.
Chargers defensive coordinator Jesse Minter told the media this week that Burrow “understands the way you try to play them well and sees coverages well.” There’s not a lot of stuff going on with Joe. “We’re excited about the challenge and the opportunity,” which suggests the Chargers know that hiding those zone looks won’t be a viable strategy to slow Burrow down. Instead, they might need Kristian Fulton, who could playing while he practices with a hamstring injury, and fifth-round rookie Cam Hart to step up and take on the challenge of guarding Chase and Higgins.
Convert Red Zone Opportunities
The Chargers score a touchdown when they reach the red zone just 54.2 percent of the time, a rate that ranks them 18th in the NFL this season. For comparison, the Bengals score a touchdown 72.4% of the time in these scenarios, which ranks them 2nd in the league behind the Ravens.
While Los Angeles’ scoring defense is borderline historic, Cincinnati is arguably the best offense the Chargers have played all year. This could turn the game into a more intense shootout than we’ve seen in Los Angeles this season – the Bengals have scored at least 30 points five times this year, while the Chargers have yet to reach that mark. Turning red zone chances into touchdowns rather than trading field goals for touchdowns will be key to coming away with a primetime win.
This article was originally published on Chargers Wire: Keys to Chargers’ Week 11 win over Bengals
