Looking for a bounce-back victory with margin for error to clinch the now-thin NFC West, the Seattle Seahawks will host the upstart Minnesota Vikings in a critical regular-season home finale, fraught with playoff ramifications for both teams.
Unable to rise to the occasion in prime time, a slow start on both sides of the football doomed Seattle to a 31-13 loss to Green Bay, dropping coach Mike Macdonald’s team from first place in the division with just three games remaining. As for Minnesota, the NFC North favorites knocked off Chicago for an easy win Monday night to improve to 12-2, remaining in the mix not only for a division title, but also for the top seed and a bye in the first round.
Which matchups will determine who earns a crucial victory in Week 16? Here are six position battles to watch as the Seahawks and Vikings face off at Lumen Field:
—Seahawks receivers DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Tyler Lockett versus Vikings cornerbacks Shaq Griffin, Stephon Gilmore and Byron Murphy: The Vikings have allowed the second-fewest points in the NFL this season, but they have been vulnerable by giving up big coverage plays, allowing 46 pass plays of 20-plus yards, the ninth most in the league. In Week 16, when he completed six passes, Murphy allowed 623 yards in coverage, fifth-most among cornerbacks this season. Griffin, a former Seahawks draft pick, was susceptible to getting beat on the ground, giving up 14.7 yards per reception on 23 catches. Before missing a few games due to injury, Gilmore had a 66 percent completion rate and three touchdowns, exposing himself more in the pass game and allowing yards after the catch.
Most notably, according to Pro Football Focus, Minnesota allowed more yardage to outside receivers than any other team in the NFL. This should open the door for Metcalf, who hasn’t had a 100-yard game since Week 4 and only scored three goals last weekend against Green Bay, to get back on track, as He ranks fifth among receivers in away yards. He also has a history of success against Griffin and Gilmore, catching touchdowns against each of them in previous matchups. Out of the nickel, Murphy picked off three passes, but he also allowed 33 catches on 43 targets for 341 yards, creating an interesting individual battle against Smith-Njigba, who leads the league in receptions and receiving yards. of the slot.
—Seahawks defensive tackles Leonard Williams, Jarran Reed and Byron Murphy against Vikings guards Dalton Risner and Blake Brandel, center Garrett Bradbury: The Vikings have generally done a solid job protecting quarterback Sam Darnold this season, but when opponents have been able to pick on him in the pocket, much of the pressure has come from within. In his first season as a full-time starter, Brendel gave up 28 pressures and six sacks, tied for second among NFL guards this year, and his pass blocking efficiency rating was 96.6 percent ranks him 47th out of 61 qualified guards. Ed Ingram was even worse in this category, giving up five sacks, leading to him being benched in favor of Risner late last month. Bradbury was also arguably the worst pass protection center in football, allowing a league-worst 31 pressures and three sacks.
On the other side of the trenches, few teams have had a more balanced attack in the interior defensive line than the Seahawks, starting with the always disruptive Williams, who ranks 11th in the NFL in defensive tackles for pressures and fifth for bags. Not far behind him, Reed racked up 37 pressures, good for 16th among interior defenders, while Murphy added 17 during a rookie season that was more productive than his numbers can illustrate. With all three players also being major contributors to the team’s recent turnaround in run defense, this could potentially be a substantial asset for the home team, although the addition of Risner to the roster offered an upgrade for the Vikings over the last five games.
—Seahawks running backs Ken Walker III and Zach Charbonnet against Vikings linebackers Blake Cashman and Kamu Grugier-Hill: Boasting a solid first season in the middle of Minnesota’s defense, Cashman has made money against the run this year, totaling 15 run stops with just three missed tackles. But they’ve missed Ivan Pace Jr. since he landed on injured reserve after Week 9, as he made 18 running stops in the first nine games and played a crucial role in holding opponents to barely more than 70 rushing yards per game during that span. Since joining the starting lineup in place of Pace, Grugier-Hill has been less reliable, posting a 20% missed tackle rate on 55 defensive snaps, although he has picked off two passes in coverage to compensate these problems.
For most of the season, Seattle didn’t have a viable ground attack, but even though Walker missed the last two games with a calf injury, Charbonnet benefited from improved blocking in front of him , accumulating 188 rushing yards and three touchdowns against Arizona and Green Bay. Interestingly, the team has ranked fifth in EPA per rush since Week 13, while Minnesota has fallen from first in run defense to 19th over the last three games. With Walker back in the lineup healthy and the Vikings proving more vulnerable to the rush as of late, Ryan Grubb should often feed his pair of backs. They should also be instrumental in the passing game plan as quick outlets for Geno Smith against the blitz with Cashman and Grugier-Hill yielding north of 11 yards per reception this season.
—Seahawks cornerbacks Riq Woolen, Devon Witherspoon and Josh Jobe against Vikings receivers Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and Jalen Nailor: Joining truly exclusive company, Jefferson recently became the first player in NFL history to reach 7,000 receiving yards in his first five seasons, and he has once again surpassed 1,200 receiving yards with eight touchdowns as Sam Darnold’s main weapon. But this is no longer a one-man wrecking crew like it once was, as Addison has already reached 771 yards and seven receiving touchdowns while Nailor has thrown for 275 yards and five scores to his third season, giving the Vikings a fun trio of playmakers in the aerial attack, they are all capable of causing damage by creating explosive receptions downfield.
What makes Minnesota particularly difficult to defend is that coach Kevin O’Connell moves his top three receivers throughout the formation, including frequently sliding Jefferson into the slot. Jefferson has 25 receptions and four touchdowns from the slot this year, while Addison and Nailor have 17 and 14 catches, respectively, working from the interior. This will present Seattle with a potential coverage dilemma, deciding whether to move Witherspoon or Woolen with Jefferson or play straight with Woolen on the left side and Jobe on the right side, regardless of where the superstar lines up, and what they choose to do could have a ripple effect on how Darnold attacks the defense by targeting his other wideouts on the outside or in the slot.
—Seahawks face Abraham Lucas and Charles Cross against Vikings ahead of linebackers Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel: Minnesota moved on from longtime star Danielle Hunter in the offseason, but the additions of Greenard and Van Ginkel made her departure much more manageable. Coming from Houston after a breakout year, Greenard continued his rise in Brian Flores’ defense, harassing quarterbacks to the tune of 66 pressures, 10.5 sacks and three forced fumbles along with 15 tackles for loss. Van Ginkel has been a bit of a surprise, already hitting a career-high nine sacks with 38 pressures and two interceptions as a do-it-all edge rusher who can rush and drop back into coverage in a pinch.
These two newcomers both offer plenty of quick twitch, with Greenard being more of a fast, powerful style runner and Van Ginkel having the explosiveness and technical acumen to win consistently as a finesse runner, creating potential problems for the much-maligned Seattle line. Cross has allowed the third-most quarterback pressures among NFL tackles with six sacks, but he has nearly 200 more pass-blocking reps than the two players in front of him and has generally been solid during its third season. As for Lucas, he’s been a little rusty after a long absence recovering from knee surgery, yielding four sacks and 14 pressures in five starts while having most of his problems with faster rushers who have beaten on the ground. This may be a significant concern for this matchup given the talented defenders he will be facing.
—Seahawks linebackers Ernest Jones IV and Tyrice Knight versus Vikings running backs Aaron Jones and Cam Akers: For most of the season, the Vikings have had an average rushing attack that has been good enough to keep defenses honest and open up the play-action game for Darnold and his talented wideouts. Still a quality versatile back, Jones ranks 12th in forced missed tackles (41), 12th in carries of 10+ yards (23) and 10th in receptions at his position, but ball security has been an issue for him all year with seven combined fumbles. Akers, a former NFC West foe who began his career with the Rams, was an effective change of pace with limited opportunities producing 358 rushing yards and four touchdowns, including two as a receiver.
Jones has been a game-changer since joining the Seahawks in late October, but last week may have been his most inconsistent performance with his new team, as he missed several tackles in the open field in the first half while as the Packers raced to a 14-point lead. However, he forced a fumble against Josh Jacobs in the second half, leading to a Charbonnet touchdown a few plays later. His ability to punch the ball could be an X-factor to watch given Aaron Jones’ history of coughing up the football with 21 career fumbles. Meanwhile, Knight will face one of his toughest tests yet in coverage, with Jones and Akers both being capable receivers capable of running a range of routes out of the backfield.
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