There is one game left in Week 16 as the Green Bay Packers host the New Orleans Saints on Monday Night Football. But that means the AFC games are over and the playoff picture has cleared up. The Chargers beat the Broncos on Thursday night, starting the week with a big win. Victories for the Chiefs, Bills and Ravens also helped clear things up. We’ll take a look at the AFC playoff picture heading into Week 17.
Five of the seven AFC playoff spots are clinched in 16 weeks. The Broncos could have clinched a spot by beating the Chargers on Thursday, but they fell apart in the second half. This win brought the Bolts’ playoff chances to 94%, so there is very little chance of the playoffs changing in the final two weeks. But anything can happen in the NFL and until there is an X next to seven teams, nothing is locked in.
Week 16 is over and the holidays are approaching. Who is in playoff contention and who is looking to hurt their chances? Here’s the picture from the AFC playoffs.
The Chiefs won another one-possession game on Saturday, beating the Houston Texans 27-19. They have a quick turnaround for a Wednesday game against the Pittsburgh Steelers on the road. Mahomes and the team have a magic number of one to clinch the AFC’s top seed. If they win, they will get the all-important first-round bye.
#2: Buffalo Bills (12-3, 1st in the AFC East)
Despite going down 14-0 in the first quarter, the Bills beat the Patriots at home in Week 16. They have already won the AFC East and are on the verge of clinching the No. 2 seed. That doesn’t mean what it was like with the extra team for the playoffs, but it does mean more playoff football in Orchard Park.
#3: Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5, 1st in the AFC North)
The Steelers lost an important game to the Ravens on Saturday, which brought the two teams into a tie. Pittsburgh would win the division if they finished with identical records based on their conference winning percentage. That makes the two Christmas Day games very important, as the Steelers host the Chiefs and the Ravens travel to Houston.
#4: Houston Texans (9-6, 1st in the AFC South)
The Texans lost more than just the game on Sunday. Tank Dell came away with a gruesome knee injury, adding to the cavalcade of injuries for the team. They’ve already won the AFC South and the playoffs, so the loss doesn’t crush their playoff seeding. Nico Collins will need to step up to the plate on Wednesday to give fans hope for the playoffs.
The Ravens evened the series against the Steelers and won the playoffs on Saturday thanks to a strong performance from their defense. Pick six was the final nail in the coffin for the game. Now the Ravens still need the Steelers to lose one of their final two games and Baltimore needs to win. The good news is that Pittsburgh takes on Kansas City this week. A win over Houston and Lamar Jackson could secure another division title.
The Chargers came back strong to beat the Broncos on Thursday and all but secured their playoff spot. If they win against the Patriots on Saturday afternoon, they will secure a return to the playoffs. Jim Harbaugh has them in the playoff conversation after a miserable 2023 season and Thursday’s win proved it.
#7: Denver Broncos (9-6, 2nd in AFC West)
The Broncos had a 21-10 lead in the second quarter, but fell apart Thursday against the Chargers. A win would have secured their spot in the playoffs and the same goes for Week 17. They face the Bengals on the road, which is a tough matchup for their strong defense. Rookie quarterback Bo Nix has been strong this year and can prove it in this game. If they lose, they will have another win scenario against the Chiefs in Week 18. They should support KC on Wednesday so they don’t have anything to play in Week 18.
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The Colts sit in eighth place and hold the tiebreaker against the Dolphins and Bengals. That means they only have to look to the Broncos for their playoff chances. They need to win both games, Week 17 against the Giants and Week 18 against the Jaguars. Then the Broncos or Chargers have to lose both of their games, Week 17 against the Bengals and Week 18 against the Chiefs. Athletic gives them 14% chance to make the playoffs.
The Dolphins have the tiebreaker against the Bengals but not against the Colts. So, after their big win against the 49ers on Sunday, they need a lot of help. It starts with Miami winning against the Browns and Patriots. Next, the Colts must lose or tie at least one of their two games. And either the Broncos or the Chargers have to lose both games. If all of this happens, the Dolphins will make the playoffs. Athletic gives them a 12% chance of achieving this.
The Bengals are the last team with a playoff chance in the AFC. They started 0-3, dashing any chance they had of making the playoffs, but a remarkable run gave them hope. They don’t have a tiebreaker against the Colts or Dolphins, but they play the Broncos and can clinch that tiebreaker. They have to win both games (vs. the Broncos, @Steelers), the Broncos have to lose in Week 18 against the Chiefs, and the Dolphins and Colts both have to lose or tie one of their final games. The Athletic says there’s a 5% chance of that happening.
