The Panthers can pick as high as No. 2 or as low as No. 9.
CHARLOTTE, N.C. — Although Carolina Panthers fans may soon forget the 48-14 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the loss helps the team in one aspect: its draft position.
The loss locked the Panthers into a Top 10 spot in the draft. The Panthers (4-12) have one game left and will finish either 5-12 or 4-13.
Whether they beat the Atlanta Falcons on Jan. 5 could drastically change the Panthers’ draft spot. The Panthers will finish week 17 in 6th place. Carolina is tied with Jacksonville, New York (Jets), Las Vegas and Chicago with four wins. The tiebreaker (SOS) puts the Panthers second among these teams behind Jacksonville.
The Panthers are also behind New England, Tennessee, Cleveland and New York (Giants) in the draft order. These four teams all have three victories.
Using Pro Football Network Project Order Simulator with the help of Tankathon SOS Calculatorwe can see where the Panthers will draft based on a number of scenarios.
What is the best draft position for the Panthers?
The large number of teams with similar win totals to the Panthers will create a wild set of scenarios in Week 18.
As far as draft position goes, the best-case scenario for the Panthers would be to lose to Atlanta and have Tennessee, Cleveland, Jacksonville and the Giants win. If the Panthers lose, the Bears and Raiders can’t move past them in the draft order. The Jets could only surpass the Panthers if a number of things happened in other games. The Browns and Giants will be stuck under the Panthers if they win and Carolina loses.
The Panthers can’t get past New England in any scenario. Carolina’s lowest potential SOS in a four-win season is .498. New England’s highest potential SOS is .481. The lower SOS gets the higher choice.
That means the highest pick the Panthers can get is the No. 2 pick.
Carolina will need the Jaguars to beat the Colts (7-10), the Browns to beat the Ravens (11-6), the Titans to beat the Texans (9-8) and the Giants to beat the Eagles (14-3). ). ) to get that draft pick. These would be daunting tasks in a normal week, but most of the favored teams could play replacements in the final week of the season.
The Jets could push the Panthers into third place with a loss and wins for the Cardinals, Lions, Bears, Bengals and Chiefs in Week 18, plus a Lions win on Monday in Week 17 The outcome of Sunday night’s game between the Falcons and the Commanders will also drastically change that: The Panthers need the Commanders to win.
What is the lowest draft position for the Panthers?
The Panthers could aim for a solid Top 5 spot if normalcy prevails in Week 18, but the most disastrous thing that could happen to their draft position would send the team to No. 9 in the board.
If the Panthers beat the Falcons in Week 18, their best draft spot will be the No. 6 pick. However, that would require a similar set of outcomes to what the Jets need to get past the Panthers in the previous scenario.
The Panthers can sink to 9th with a win plus losses to the Bears, Jets and Raiders. Even if the Panthers finish with a record similar to that of the New Orleans Saints, there is no longer an SOS spot for the Saints ahead of Carolina.
What is most likely to happen?
Your guess is as good as anyone’s, but the Panthers’ draft spot will depend on the results of almost every game in Week 18.
Here are scenarios that will help the Panthers’ draft position against other SOS-based teams:
Picking higher than the Jets – 49ers vs. Lions (Week 17), 49ers vs. Cardinals, Vikings vs. Lions, Packers vs. Bears, Steelers vs. Bengals and Broncos vs. Chiefs
Note: Not all of these results are necessary for the Panthers to have a better SOS than the Jets.
To choose higher than the Titans – Washington vs. Atlanta (week 17), Lions vs. 49ers (week 17), 49ers vs. Cardinals, Washington vs. Dallas, Packers vs. Bears and Chargers vs. Raiders
Note: Not all of these results are necessary for the Panthers to have a better SOS than the Titans.
Picking higher than the Jaguars – Washington vs. Atlanta (week 17), Lions vs. 49ers (week 17), 49ers vs. Cardinals, Eagles vs. Giants, Packers vs. Bears, Raiders vs. Chargers, Browns vs. Steelers
Note: Not all of these results are necessary for the Panthers to have a better SOS than the Jaguars.
Picking higher than the Browns – Carolina’s defeat against the Falcons and the Browns’ victory against the Ravens
Picking higher than the Giants – Carolina’s defeat against the Falcons and the Giants’ victory against the Eagles.
To pick higher than the Bears – Carolina loss to Falcons OR Carolina win plus Bears win
Picking higher than the Raiders – Carolina loss to Falcons OR Carolina win plus Raiders win
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This article will be updated after the Commanders vs Falcons game on Sunday Night Football.
