The idea that Jerry Jones is still undecided about Mike McCarthy’s future seems absurd. Jones has nearly five full seasons of data with McCarthy to reference, so another seemingly meaningless game is unlikely to sway the Dallas Cowboys owner one way or the other.
If Jones values regular season success the most, he should be thrilled with McCarthy. McCarthy had posted three straight 12-win seasons as head coach in Dallas and consistently ranked atop the league on offense, which happened to be his bread and butter. Bringing McCarthy back under these circumstances should be a no-brainer.
If Jones prioritizes playoff success, he should be severely disappointed in his head coach. Although he was handed a ready-made Super Bowl contender, McCarthy was not able to do better than the failed coach before him. He regularly gets embarrassingly lost and has been foiled in almost every case. Under the circumstances, letting McCarthy go would be a no-brainer.
It seems like the only thing this situation can’t be is an undecided question, but a closer look at the coaching carousel this offseason could substantiate exactly that.
Large multi-million dollar companies rarely change their CEO unless they have a better option in mind. Unless they’re just looking for a scapegoat for a particularly bad situation, they only take action if it’s an upgrade. If the Cowboys were looking to go first (scapegoat), they probably would have cut bait with McCarthy after the debacle against Green Bay last playoffs. Whereas if the Cowboys are more focused on an upgrade, they’re probably just waiting for a more promising alternative to emerge this winter.
Speculation has been rife for months about which head coaching candidates will seek employment this offseason. Some are sure bets while others are a game of chance. The uncertain candidate pool could contribute to Jones’ uncertain stance toward his head coach. Based on all the regular season success, Jones knows McCarthy is far from a bad option. Based on all the disappointing playoff performances, Jones also knows there are much better coaching options in the NFL as well. Who they are, whether they will be available and whether they will be interested in the Cowboys are the questions Jones must consider.
Being good enough to win in the regular season seems like good enough to fans. McCarthy’s Cowboys remain a ratings juggernaut, win or lose. The Cowboys’ franchise value remains the highest in the world, win or lose. Merchandise sales, media coverage and attendance also seem impervious to team failures. Jones doesn’t need to force the substitution if he doesn’t see clear and obvious improvement.
There’s a good chance the Cowboys decided McCarthy’s fate last winter and his exodus is simply a foregone conclusion. Jones doesn’t like to spend money if he doesn’t have to (see also the Cowboys’ annual free agent spending) and firing McCarthy with one year remaining on his contract would essentially force Dallas to pay two head coaches in 2024 Under a realistic premise, the Cowboys are simply allowing McCarthy to save face and remain marketable even though they have already decided on a new direction for the franchise.
Based on the wealth of data McCarthy has provided them over the years, there’s a good chance Jones knows exactly what McCarthy’s fate is. But there remains a possibility that Jones is truly undecided and is simply waiting until all of the candidates have come forward.
McCarthy’s contract expires Jan. 14, so Jones has time to see who hits the coaching market and who doesn’t. If a clear and obvious upgrade isn’t available to the Cowboys, Jones may simply decide that McCarthy is good enough.
