This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
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NFL Odds and Key Moves for Wild Card Weekend
The purpose of this article is to examine the key line movements of the week and what they mean in terms of betting. The key numbers to watch in the NFL are 3, 7, 6, 14 and 10. When a line crosses one of these, it’s a big move that deserves attention.
NFL Wild Card Weekend Odds
Wild Card Weekend Program
Saturday January 11
#5 Los Angeles Chargers -2.5 to #4 Houston Texans O/U 44.0 (Chargers -3.0, O/U 42.5)
#6 Pittsburgh Steelers vs. #3 Baltimore Ravens -10.0 O/U 46.0 (Ravens -10.0 O/U 43.5)
Sunday January 12
#7 Denver Broncos at #2 Buffalo Bills -8.5 O/U 47.0 (Bills -8.5 O/U 47.5)
#7 Green Bay Packers to #2 Philadelphia Eagles -4.0 O/U 46.0 (Eagles -4.5 O/U 45.5)
#6 Washington Commanders at #3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 O/U 49.5 (Bucs -3.0 O/U 50.5)
Monday January 13
#5 Minnesota Vikings -2.5 to #4 Los Angeles Rams O/U 47.0 (Vikings -1.5 O/U 46.5)
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Los Angeles Chargers to the Houston Texans 
The Chargers started as -2.5-point road favorites and the line moved to -3.0, which is a key number. The total went from 44.0 to 42.5, which is significant because it passed the key number of 43. The Texans’ strong defense and struggling offense along with the Chargers’ inconsistent offense are the reasons for the total decline and I think we could see it decline further. further away.
Trends
- The Chargers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games
- The Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall
- The Texans are 5-2 at home during wild card weekend
- The total has gone LOWER in 6 of Houston’s 8 home games.
- 0-3 road favorites are 8-2 SU and 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 playoff games
Key injuries
Chargers – N / A
Texans – WR Tank Dell (O), WR Stefon Diggs (O)
Weather report – Inside
Pittsburgh Steelers 
to the Baltimore Ravens 
The Ravens opened at -10.0 and the spread bounced between -9.5 and -10.0 for the home favorites against their division rival Steelers. The real movement occurred on the total which opened at 46.0 and quickly fell to 45.0 before falling sharply back to 43.5. The recent performance of the Ravens defense combined with the struggles of the Steelers offense is to blame for the drop in the total.
Trends
- Home favorites by 10 points or more are 17-3 SU, but 12-7-1 ATS in the playoffs over the last 20 games
- The total has been over in 6 of Pittsburgh’s last 7 road games
- The total has gone LOWER in 8 of Baltimore’s last 9 games against Pittsburgh.
- The Steelers are 0-5 in their last 5 playoff games.
- Baltimore is 6-1 SU in their last 7 home games
Key injuries
Steelers –
Crows – WR Zay Flowers (Q)
Weather report – 29 degrees with 21 percent chance of precipitation
Denver Broncos 
at Buffalo Bills 
The Bills started as -8.5 point home favorites and went to -9.0 and -9.5 before dropping back to -8.5. This number is significant when it comes to teasers because you can take the Bills down to -2.5 on a 6-point teaser.
The total bounced from 47.0 to 47.5, which seems extremely high for this game, but the Bills’ offense combined with the Broncos’ road defense drove that number up.
Trends
- Buffalo has scored at least 30 points in 12 games this season
- The Bills committed just eight turnovers, which ties the 2019 Saints for the fewest in a season.
- Buffalo is 26-4 SU, but 16-13-1 ATS in its last 30 home games as a favorite of 7 points or more.
- The total has been over in 5 of the Broncos’ last 6 road games
- Home favorites by 7 points or more are 18-2 SU, but 11-9 ATS in the playoffs over the last 20 games
Key injuries
Broncos – None
Invoices – None
Weather report – 28 degrees with 13 percent chance of snow
Green Bay Packers 
to the Philadelphia Eagles 
The Eagles opened as -4.0 point home favorites, and the line climbed to -4.5, -5.0 and peaked at -5.5 before seeing a net line drop back down to -4 ,5. The total opened at 46.0 and it fell to 45.5. The quarterback situations on both sides are undecided, but Jordan Love and Jalen Hurts are expected to start.
Trends
- The total has been over in 11 of Green Bay’s last 15 road games
- Philadelphia is 7-0 SU in their last 5 home games
- Philadelphia is 12-1 SU in their last 13 games
Key injuries
Packers – WR Christian Watson (O), QB Jordan Love (Q)
Eagles – QB Jalen hurts (Q)
Weather report – 36 degrees with 3 percent chance of precipitation
Washington Commanders 
to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 
The Bucs opened as -2.5 point home favorites and immediately went to -3.0 and peaked at -3.5 before dropping back to -3.0. This looks like a shootout with a total opening at 49.5 then rising to 50.5.
Trends
- Washington is 5-0 SU in their last 5 games
- Washington is 5-2 SU in their last 7 road games
- Tampa Bay is 6-1 SU in their last 7 games
- The total has been over in 5 of Tampa Bay’s last 6 games
Key injuries
Commanders – None
Bucs- None
Weather report – 52 degrees with 3 percent chance of precipitation
Minnesota Vikings 
to the Los Angeles Rams 
With the playoffs, you are unlikely to see significant line movement unless there is an injury during the week or significant weather issues. The Vikings opened as -2.5 point road favorites, but the money went to the Rams and the line moved to -2.0 before moving back up to -2.5, but there were several movements in play yesterday at -2.0, -1.5 and now. can be found at Vikings -1.0.
The total opened at 47.0 and still sits at 47.0.
Trends
- Minnesota is 9-1 SU and 6-3-1 ATS in its last 10 games
- The Los Angeles Rams are 5-1 ATS and SU in their last 6 games
- 0-3 road favorites are 8-2 SU and 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 playoff games
Key injuries
Vikings -QB Sam Darnold (Q), RB Aaron Jones (Q)
Rams -RB Blake Corum (O)
Weather report – Inside
