GREEN BAY, Wis. – In 2010, the Green Bay Packers finished the regular season at home against the Chicago Bears before earning a wild card win over the Philadelphia Eagles and ultimately winning the Super Bowl.
This was the Packers’ final trip to the Super Bowl.
With the Packers hosting the Bears last week and playing the Eagles in a wild-card game on Sunday, can history repeat itself?
Maybe.
ESPN.com’s Bill Barnwell analyzed advanced analytics to help predict every playoff game and helped the Packers reach the Super Bowl.
Here’s a Cliffs Notes version of a much longer playoff preview.
NFC Wild Card: Packers at Eagles
The Packers lost to the Eagles 34-29 in Week 1 in Brazil. The Packers lost some early takeaways, fell behind and couldn’t rally.
After a 2-2 start, the Eagles are 12-1. They have a turnover of plus-17 over this period.
The Packers, meanwhile, lost their last two games, forcing them into the playoffs as the No. 7 seed.
However, the Brazil game was the start of Green Bay’s defense under new coordinator Jeff Hafley. Meanwhile, Barnwell likes the matchup between Jordan Love and Vic Fangio’s top-ranked Eagles defense.
“The trick to slowing Love down this season has been the blitz,” Barnwell wrote, noting that Love’s QBR was sixth when defenses didn’t blitz but 19th against the blitz. This is why Love was the most blitzed quarterback in the league.
“The Eagles, though, don’t really blitz,” Barnwell continued. “They send additional officers only 20% of the time, which is the fifth lowest rate. They have a great front four, which allows them to control the line of scrimmage with their pass rush, but Fangio likes to drop into coverage and trust that he can win with his defensive line. There’s nothing wrong with that philosophy, but it might not be the best way to beat Green Bay.
Ultimately, Barnwell said, the Packers’ advantage at kicker will be the advantage in the game.
NFC division: Packers at Lions
Barnwell has leaned heavily into team injuries, with the Packers relatively healthy with Christian Watson and Jaire Alexander the only starters on injured reserve, while the Lions apparently have half their roster on the infirmary.
However, the battered Lions dominated the Packers for most of three quarters at Ford Field before holding on for victory last month.
“I’m not sure the Packers can do much to slow down the Lions, but I’m even less confident in injury-compromised Detroit’s chances of slowing down Green Bay,” Barnwell concluded.
NFC Championship: Packers at Rams
Oddly, the three NFL heavyweights are all in Barnwell’s group, so the Packers will play the Rams in its NFC championship game.
The Packers beat the Rams in October, but Matthew Stafford lined up without receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua and tight end Tyler Higbee. All three are back, which would pose a much different challenge in a rematch.
Barnwell discussed Love’s strengths and weaknesses in relation to the blitz. When they met in Week 5, Love was 4 of 11 for 7 yards with an interception when the Rams blitzed.
Why would the Packers win this game? Because of their red zone offense against a Rams defense that masked its defensive deficiencies by finishing fifth in the league in red zone defense.
“Bend but don’t break is not a sustainable thing,” Barnwell said. “If a defense isn’t good outside the red zone but manages to thrive inside the 20, eventually it gets figured out.”
There is a huge gap in the EPA; Barnwell said the Packers were third and the Rams were 17th.
“Green Bay is the most talented team,” he said. “And even though the Rams would be at home, it’s not hard to imagine how many Packers fans would travel to Los Angeles for this game. They wouldn’t regret the trip.
Super Bowl: Packers-Chiefs
The 59th Super Bowl would be a replay of the first. And Love’s first Super Bowl start would come against the team he made his first NFL start on.
In that 2021 game, Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo bombarded Love relentlessly. Spagnuolo loves to blitz and Love’s issues against the blitz are well established.
The Packers would have two weeks to dissect the Chiefs’ defensive film to project what Spagnuolo could do; Spagnuolo would have two weeks to come up with new wrinkles.
“As good as (Chiefs coach Andy) Reid is as a game planner with time to prepare, LaFleur could be his match,” Barnwell said. “What LaFleur did to build a scheme around Malik Willis after Love’s knee injury early in the season might have been the most impressive schematic work done by a coach all season.”
However, the Packers’ weaknesses would be exacerbated by the Chiefs’ strengths, and Patrick Mahomes’ patient style would not be fazed by the way Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley has played this year.
“This is a terrible game for the Packers,” Barnwell wrote.
The Chiefs get the hat-trick, 27-13.
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Two quarters moved from limited participation to full participation today.
Here is the update #Packers-Eagles injury report. ⬇️https://t.co/yE5YgECgKV
– Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) January 9, 2025
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