The Minnesota Vikings appeared to be in a win-win situation at quarterback heading into their regular season finale.
They had Sam Darnold playing out of his mind, fresh off his first Pro Bowl nod and ready to lead the Vikings deep into the playoffs. They also placed rookie JJ McCarthy on injured reserve, giving the team a rare mix of poise and options at the QB position moving forward.
However, everything changed in Minnesota’s final two games of the 2024 season.
The Vikings were throttled by the Detroit Lions, 31-9, on Week 18 of Sunday Night Football in a game that decided the NFC North division title and No. 1 playoff seed . A week later, while facing the Los Angeles Rams at a neutral site due to the Los Angeles wildfires, Minnesota was eliminated from the playoffs, 27-9, in a game that seemed over before the half-time.
Darnold looked tight in those two games with the lights shining brightest. He held the ball and took a combined 11 sacks – including nine in the playoff game against the Rams – while completing 53% of his passes. His fumble that was returned for a touchdown by Rams star Jared Verse in the second quarter not only sealed Minnesota’s fate for 2024, but seemed to signal the start of the McCarthy era in 2025.
Not so fast, warns ESPN editor Ben Solak.
Asked recently about his big prediction for the Vikings’ 2025 offseason, Solak dropped a very bold take, naming Darnold — not McCarthy — as the team’s QB of the future. Here is its full version:
I truly, truly believe that the Vikings will extend Darnold. They have room for something in the Daniel Jones neighborhood — four years, $160 million is probably optimal, if they can convince Darnold to sign that before another team on the open market offers him a huge deal. Depending on the size of the contract, they will keep McCarthy or quietly look to trade him ahead of a bad quarterback draft class and see if a team in need will take the bait.
This take would have seemed reasonable about a month ago. How many teams are happy to let a Pro Bowl player enter free agency?
For Minnesota, however, the risk of letting Darnold leave this offseason is mitigated by McCarthy’s rookie contract. The team could let Darnold sign elsewhere, hope to recoup a future compensatory pick — like the projected 2025 third-round selection they expect for Kirk Cousins — and immediately begin building a championship roster around McCarthy.
Even if a team like the New York Giants, for example, offered McCarthy the third overall pick this year, the Vikings would have to decline. While it would be tempting to have a real chance against Travis Hunter or Abdul Carter at the top of the draft, Vikings fans can rest easy knowing they have a 22-year-old QB on the roster who would likely be the surefire solution . No. 1 overall pick this year. When you’re a franchise chasing a championship, that’s a rare luxury.
It’s one thing for Minnesota to seek a solution that would keep Darnold in Minnesota in the short term, extending the bridge to McCarthy as he returns from a pair of knee surgeries. But $40 million a year for Darnold, who turns 28 this summer and has never won a playoff game in his seven-year NFL career? Trading McCarthy before he plays a real NFL snap? This sounds like the kind of decision that gets people fired and ultimately comes back to haunt a franchise for decades.
